Sains Malaysiana 55(4)(2026): 730-745

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2026-5504-12

 

Fractional-Order Modeling of Dengue Virus Dynamics with Predator-Prey Interactions

(Pemodelan Tertib Pecahan Dinamik Virus Denggi dengan Interaksi Pemangsa-Mangsa)

 

SARINAH BANU MOHAMED SIDDIK¹, MATTHEW O. ADEWOLE^2,3,*, NEWTON I. OKPOSO⁴, TAYE SAMUEL FANIRAN^5,6 & FARAH AINI ABDULLAH²

 

¹Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Intelligent Computing, Universiti Malaysia Perlis, Kampus Alam UniMAP, Pauh Putra, 02600 Arau, Perlis, Malaysia

²Mathematics and Statistics Programme, Bowen University, Iwo, Nigeria

³School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia 11800 USM Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

⁴Department of Mathematics, Delta State University, Abraka, PMB 1, Delta state, Nigeria

⁵F.I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, USA

⁶Lead City University, Ibadan, Nigeria

 

Received: 15 May 2025/Accepted: 7 April 2026

 

#Both S.B.M. Siddik and M.O. Adewole contributed equally and thus are joint first authors

 

Abstract

This study analyzes a Caputo-Fabrizio fractional differential model to capture dengue transmission dynamics, incorporating predator-prey interactions. The analysis confirms the existence, uniqueness, and positivity of solutions, establishing the model as biologically meaningful and well-posed. The disease-free equilibrium is identified, and its asymptotic stability is evaluated under specific conditions. An implicit numerical scheme is proposed, and its performance is compared to the two-step Adams–Bashforth scheme, showing enhanced accuracy and stability. Parameter estimation through model fitting aligns the model with observed real-world data. Sensitivity analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling-Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (LHS-PRCC) shows key parameters influencing the dynamics of dengue transmission. The results show that while predator-prey interactions help mitigate dengue transmission, they are insufficient for complete disease eradication. This highlights the need for complementary control measures, such as vector control, public health education, and improved healthcare systems, to effectively reduce transmission.

Keywords: Numerical scheme; predator-prey; sensitivity analysis

 

Abstrak

Kajian ini menganalisis model pembezaan pecahan Caputo-Fabrizio untuk menunjukkan dinamik penularan denggi, menggabungkan interaksi pemangsa-mangsa. Analisis ini mengesahkan kewujudan, keunikan dan kepositifan penyelesaian, menjadikan model tersebut bermakna secara biologi dan tepat. Keseimbangan bebas penyakit dikenal pasti dan kestabilan asimptotiknya dinilai di bawah keadaan tertentu. Skema berangka tersirat dicadangkan dan prestasinya dibandingkan dengan skema Adams-Bashforth dua langkah, menunjukkan ketepatan dan kestabilan yang dipertingkatkan. Anggaran parameter melalui pemadanan model menyelaraskan model dengan data dunia sebenar yang diperhatikan. Analisis sensitiviti menggunakan Pekali Korelasi Peringkat Separa-Pensampelan Hiperkubus Latin (LHS-PRCC) mendedahkan parameter utama yang mempengaruhi dinamik penularan denggi. Keputusan menunjukkan bahawa walaupun interaksi pemangsa-mangsa membantu mengurangkan penularan denggi, ia tidak mencukupi untuk pembasmian penyakit sepenuhnya. Ini menonjolkan keperluan untuk langkah kawalan pelengkap, seperti kawalan vektor, pendidikan kesihatan awam dan sistem penjagaan kesihatan yang lebih baik untuk mengurangkan penularan secara berkesan.
Kata kunci: Analisis sensitiviti; pemangsa-mangsa; skema berangka

 

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*Corresponding author; email: olamatthews@ymail.com